Prachuap 3-0 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sam Ao Stadium plays host to Prachuap versus Rayong FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Sam Ao Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rayong FC have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.33 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Prachuap half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rayong FC half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 33% versus Rayong FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 67% | Rayong FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.72 xG and Rayong FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.095 / defence 0.751 | Rayong FC attack 0.829 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.299. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Prachuap games / 3 Rayong FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 57% | Draw 27% | Rayong FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Rayong FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 50% | Rayong FC 67%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 57% | Draw 27% | Rayong FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Prachuap 1.72 / Rayong FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.095 / def 0.751 | Rayong FC attack 0.829 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Rayong FC xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Rayong FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Rayong FC kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Rayong FC?
Prachuap 3 - 0 Rayong FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Rayong FC part of?
Prachuap vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 57% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Prachuap and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Rayong FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Rayong FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Rayong FC (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 1.09x the league average against Rayong FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayong FC's attack (0.83x) against Prachuap's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
57%
1.74
27%
3.68
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.53
0.81
Rayong FC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
3%
36.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.81 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Prachuap come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rayong FC sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Prachuap against 1.33 for Rayong FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Prachuap are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Prachuap or Rayong FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rayong FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Prachuap won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Prachuap
1
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Rayong FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Rayong FC?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 33%, Rayong FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Prachuap) and 33% (Rayong FC).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rayong FC in 33%; Prachuap have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Rayong FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Prachuap's recent matches and 67% of Rayong FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Prachuap's recent games and 33% of Rayong FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Prachuap run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Rayong FC 3-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.72 xG and Rayong FC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rayong FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.09 / defence 0.75 against Rayong FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 57% | Draw 27% | Rayong FC 15%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 67%, Rayong FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rayong FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.00 PPG, Rayong FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Rayong FC managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.