Prachuap vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Pattani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Pattani travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 February 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have recorded 2W 1D 4L from 7 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pattani away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Prachuap have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 1, Pattani 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 3–0 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Pattani in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 29% versus Pattani 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 57% | Pattani 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.71 xG and Pattani 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.910 / defence 0.734 | Pattani attack 0.923 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.436. Pattani bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Prachuap games / 7 Pattani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 55% | Draw 24% | Pattani 21%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Pattani 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 40% | Pattani 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 55% | Draw 24% | Pattani 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Prachuap 1.71 / Pattani 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.910 / def 0.734 | Pattani attack 0.923 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Pattani xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Pattani kick off?
Prachuap vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Pattani part of?
Prachuap vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 55% chance of winning, Pattani a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Prachuap and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Pattani?
Record (1 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Pattani 0W.
What form are Prachuap and Pattani in?
Prachuap (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Pattani (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.91) and Pattani's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pattani's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.15
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.69
0.97
Pattani xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
4%
26.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.97 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Pattani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Prachuap come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pattani sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Prachuap's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pattani have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Pattani in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Pattani have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Pattani away?
Prachuap's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.33 PPG; Pattani away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Pattani in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Prachuap
0
Draws
0
Pattani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Pattani?
From 1 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Pattani have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Pattani last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Pattani 0-3 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Pattani?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Prachuap at 33%, Pattani at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Prachuap and 100% for Pattani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Prachuap have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Pattani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Prachuap's games and 100% of Pattani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Prachuap's matches and 100% of Pattani's.
Do Prachuap and Pattani tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Pattani in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.