Prachuap vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Pattani travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 February 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Prachuap at 1.70 PPG versus Pattani's 1.33. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 1, Pattani 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 3–0 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pattani in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Prachuap 0% | Pattani 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 33% | Pattani 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.38 xG and Pattani 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.008 / defence 0.798 | Pattani attack 0.982 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.228. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Prachuap games / 3 Pattani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 47% | Draw 27% | Pattani 26%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Pattani 3.85. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 40% | Pattani 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 47% | Draw 27% | Pattani 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Prachuap 1.38 / Pattani 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.008 / def 0.798 | Pattani attack 0.982 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Pattani xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Pattani kick off?
Prachuap vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Pattani part of?
Prachuap vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 47% chance of winning, Pattani a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Prachuap and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Pattani?
Record (1 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Pattani 0W.
What form are Prachuap and Pattani in?
Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.01) and Pattani's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pattani's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.67
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.35
0.96
Pattani xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.96 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Pattani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Prachuap come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pattani sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Pattani in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Pattani have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Prachuap or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Pattani in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Prachuap
0
Draws
0
Pattani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Pattani?
From 1 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Pattani have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Pattani last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Pattani 0-3 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Pattani?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Prachuap 0% BTTS, Pattani 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Prachuap) and 67% (Pattani).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Pattani in 33%; Prachuap have failed to score in 33% of games; Pattani in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Prachuap's recent matches and 33% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Prachuap's recent games and 67% of Pattani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Pattani tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pattani in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.