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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.42 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.86 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 47% | Draw 32% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 20%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 47%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.42 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights