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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Prachuap run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Muangthong United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Muangthong United 5-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.41 xG and Muangthong United 1.14 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Muangthong United attack 1.14 / defence 0.89, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 43% | Draw 26% | Muangthong United 30%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 47%, Muangthong United 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Muangthong United's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights