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Poisson model favours Prachuap (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Prachuap face Lamphun Warrior.

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Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Prachuap haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Prachuap carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Prachuap, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Prachuap in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 50% versus Lamphun Warrior 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 40% | Lamphun Warrior 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.49 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.012 / defence 0.907 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.947 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Prachuap games / 30 Lamphun Warrior games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Prachuap 49% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 20%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Lamphun Warrior 5.00. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 50% | Lamphun Warrior 60%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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