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Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kanchanaburi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Kanchanaburi 2-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.65 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.90 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kanchanaburi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.76 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 53% | Draw 29% | Kanchanaburi 18%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 50%, Kanchanaburi 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Prachuap 0.50 PPG, Kanchanaburi 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Kanchanaburi managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights