Prachuap vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Chonburi FC travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sam Ao Stadium, Prachuap have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Prachuap have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Prachuap, 3 for Chonburi FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Prachuap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Prachuap in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 46% versus Chonburi FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 39% | Chonburi FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.38 xG and Chonburi FC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.005 / defence 0.803 | Chonburi FC attack 0.878 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.221. Data: 33 Prachuap games / 33 Chonburi FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 49% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Chonburi FC 4.35. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 40% | Chonburi FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 49% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Prachuap 1.38 / Chonburi FC 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.005 / def 0.803 | Chonburi FC attack 0.878 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Chonburi FC xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC part of?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 49% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Prachuap and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
Record (8 meetings): Prachuap 3W | Draws 2 | Chonburi FC 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.63
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.24
0.86
Chonburi FC xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
6%
16.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.86 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 13W 12D 8L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC's form line: 10W 9D 14L from 33 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.55 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 2.06 PPG from 16 outings (9W 6D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 4D 8L from 16 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.21 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 13W 12D 8L in their last 33 games (1.55 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Chonburi FC away?
Prachuap's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.06 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Chonburi FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
2
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 38%, Chonburi FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Prachuap) and 56% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Chonburi FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Prachuap's recent matches and 50% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Prachuap's recent games and 56% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.