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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chonburi FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Chonburi FC 2-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.82 xG and Chonburi FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chonburi FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against Chonburi FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 54% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 18%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 38%, Chonburi FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.38 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights