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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Chiangrai United 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Chiangrai United 3-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.24 xG and Chiangrai United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Chiangrai United attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 34% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 33%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 47%, Chiangrai United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.40 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights