Prachuap 1-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Prachuap and Chiangrai United meet at Sam Ao Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Chiangrai United's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Prachuap's favour (1.80 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Prachuap have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Chiangrai United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Prachuap 2W, Chiangrai United 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 66% and Chiangrai United 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 50% | Chiangrai United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.26 xG and Chiangrai United 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.898 / defence 0.841 | Chiangrai United attack 0.844 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.143. Data: 58 Prachuap games / 58 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 45% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 22%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Chiangrai United 4.55. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Prachuap 60% | Chiangrai United 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 45% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Prachuap 1.26 / Chiangrai United 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.898 / def 0.841 | Chiangrai United attack 0.844 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Chiangrai United xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Prachuap vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Prachuap 1 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United part of?
Prachuap vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 45% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Prachuap and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
Record (5 meetings): Prachuap 2W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 2W.
What form are Prachuap and Chiangrai United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 0.90x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.84x) against Prachuap's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.09
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.07
0.81
Chiangrai United xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.81 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap come into this having played 58 games, going 16W 18D 24L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.34 PPG from 58 outings (20W 18D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Prachuap against 1.34 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Prachuap's home form reads 13W 7D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 1.03 points per game from 29 outings (7W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Chiangrai United in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Current Season
Chiangrai United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 16W 18D 24L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 20W 18D 20L in their last 58 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Chiangrai United away?
Prachuap's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.59 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Prachuap
2
Draws
3
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 5, Chiangrai United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Prachuap 3-2 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Prachuap, 66% for Chiangrai United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Prachuap) and 62% (Chiangrai United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Prachuap's games and 66% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Prachuap's matches and 62% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Prachuap and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Chiangrai United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Chiangrai United 1-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.26 xG and Chiangrai United 0.81 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chiangrai United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Chiangrai United attack 0.84 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 45% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 22%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 50%, Chiangrai United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.14 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.