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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bangkok United cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Prachuap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Prachuap 2-4 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.38 xG and Bangkok United 1.12 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Bangkok United outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.15 / defence 0.78 against Bangkok United attack 1.13 / defence 0.69, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 42% | Draw 29% | Bangkok United 29%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bangkok United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 48%, Bangkok United 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Bangkok United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bangkok United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights