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Poisson model favours Port FC (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Uthai Thani.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Port FC welcome Uthai Thani to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 December 2026 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.

Uthai Thani — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Uthai Thani's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Port FC: 3 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Uthai Thani, with 3 draws across those contests.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Port FC winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Port FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Port FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 40% versus Uthai Thani 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 47% | Uthai Thani 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.82 xG and Uthai Thani 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.157 / defence 0.852 | Uthai Thani attack 0.868 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Port FC games / 30 Uthai Thani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Port FC 61% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 13%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Uthai Thani 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 40% | Uthai Thani 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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