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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Port FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Uthai Thani.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Uthai Thani 3-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.04 xG and Uthai Thani 0.91 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.72 against Uthai Thani attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 61% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 14%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 49%, Uthai Thani 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights