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Dominant Port FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Sukhothai FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Sukhothai FC 5-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.71 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.67 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.77 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.73 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 61% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 12%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 49%, Sukhothai FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights