Port FC vs Rayong FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Rayong FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Rayong FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Rayong FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Port FC's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Rayong FC's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Port FC 2W, Rayong FC 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 2–5 with Rayong FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Rayong FC — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 42% versus Rayong FC 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 48% | Rayong FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.00 xG and Rayong FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.151 / defence 0.893 | Rayong FC attack 0.988 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Port FC games / 31 Rayong FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port FC 61% | Draw 22% | Rayong FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Rayong FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 40% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 61% | Draw 22% | Rayong FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Port FC 2.00 / Rayong FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.151 / def 0.893 | Rayong FC attack 0.988 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Port FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Rayong FC xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Rayong FC kick off?
Port FC vs Rayong FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Rayong FC part of?
Port FC vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 61% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Port FC and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Rayong FC?
Record (4 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 1 | Rayong FC 1W.
What form are Port FC and Rayong FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.15x the league average against Rayong FC's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayong FC's attack (0.99x) against Port FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.54
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.96
0.96
Rayong FC xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
43.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Port FC and 0.96 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port FC's recent record stands at 19W 6D 6L from 31 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 11L across 31 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayong FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 11W 4D 0L from 15 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 74%.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 19W 6D 6L in their last 31 games (2.03 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 10W 10D 11L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Rayong FC away?
Port FC's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.47 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Port FC or Rayong FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Rayong FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 4-1 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Port FC
1
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Rayong FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rayong FC 5-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Rayong FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 40%, Rayong FC 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Port FC and 60% for Rayong FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Port FC's games and 80% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Port FC's matches and 60% of Rayong FC's.
Do Port FC and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.