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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Port FC and Rayong FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Port FC and Rayong FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.18 xG and Rayong FC 1.35 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Port FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Rayong FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 56% | Draw 21% | Rayong FC 23%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 59%, Rayong FC 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayong FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights