Port FC vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Port FC face Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Ratchaburi travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Port FC are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Port FC, 2 for Ratchaburi and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Port FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 47% versus Ratchaburi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 53% | Ratchaburi 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.12 xG and Ratchaburi 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.392 / defence 0.903 | Ratchaburi attack 1.309 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.436. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.392 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Port FC games / 37 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 48% | Draw 21% | Ratchaburi 31%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.08 | Draw 4.76 | Ratchaburi 3.23. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.81 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 50% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 48% | Draw 21% | Ratchaburi 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Port FC 2.12 / Ratchaburi 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.392 / def 0.903 | Ratchaburi attack 1.309 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Port FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Ratchaburi xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 48% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 31% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Port FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (10 meetings): Port FC 4W | Draws 4 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in?
Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
48%
2.10
21%
4.76
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.81
1.70
Ratchaburi xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.56
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
12%
8.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
4%
26.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Port FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Port FC and 1.70 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Port FC have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 23W 6D 7L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 22W 5D 9L from 36 games, 1.97 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 2.08 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Port FC have posted 2.56 PPG from 18 outings (14W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.08 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 11W 2D 5L from 18 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.97 scored and 1.03 conceded. Ratchaburi's attacking output running into Port FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 23W 6D 7L in their last 36 games (2.08 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 22W 5D 9L in their last 36 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Port FC's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.56 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Port FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
4
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 50%, Ratchaburi 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Port FC and 67% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Port FC's games and 72% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Port FC's matches and 67% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Port FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.