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Poisson model rates Port FC at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Pattani travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Port FC at PAT Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.11 xG and Pattani 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.157 / defence 0.852 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Port FC games / 0 Pattani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Port FC 68% | Draw 22% | Pattani 10%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Pattani 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W • Port FC home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | CS 6
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 68% | Draw 22% | Pattani 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 47% | xG Port FC 2.11 / Pattani 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.157 / def 0.852 | Pattani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Port FC (68%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Pattani xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Pattani kick off?
Port FC vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Pattani part of?
Port FC vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 68% chance of winning, Pattani a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Port FC and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Pattani?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Port FC and Pattani in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W • Port FC home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | CS 6
What do the betting odds say about Port FC vs Pattani?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture