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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Port FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.97 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.06 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.12 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 57% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 61%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port FC 1.61 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights