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Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Muangthong United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Muangthong United 1-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.72 xG and Muangthong United 0.92 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Muangthong United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.59 / defence 0.84 against Muangthong United attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 74% | Draw 18% | Muangthong United 9%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 55%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Muangthong United's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port FC 1.61 PPG, Muangthong United 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights