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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Khon Kaen United defy the odds to beat Port FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khon Kaen United beat Port FC 1-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.87 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.69 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Port FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Khon Kaen United outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 64% | Draw 24% | Khon Kaen United 12%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Khon Kaen United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 65%, Khon Kaen United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Khon Kaen United's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Khon Kaen United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights