Port FC 8-0 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Kanchanaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port FC and Kanchanaburi meet at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC at PAT Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kanchanaburi have collected 1.00 PPG across 6 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 2L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Kanchanaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Kanchanaburi have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Kanchanaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Port FC 33% | Kanchanaburi 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Port FC 33% | Kanchanaburi 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.09 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.206 / defence 0.860 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.654 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.198. Data: 36 Port FC games / 6 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 69% | Draw 22% | Kanchanaburi 9%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.45 | Draw 4.55 | Kanchanaburi 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (69%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 70% | Kanchanaburi 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 69% | Draw 22% | Kanchanaburi 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 45% | xG Port FC 2.09 / Kanchanaburi 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.206 / def 0.860 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.654 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Port FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Kanchanaburi xG
45%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Port FC vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Port FC 8 - 0 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Port FC vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Port FC vs Kanchanaburi is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 69% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Port FC and Kanchanaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Kanchanaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Kanchanaburi in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.21x the league average against Kanchanaburi's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kanchanaburi's attack (0.65x) against Port FC's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
69%
1.46
22%
4.52
9%
10.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.76
0.67
Kanchanaburi xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
10.91
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
35%
2.86
1%
88.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Port FC and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Port FC and 0.67 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 1D 3L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kanchanaburi sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Port FC against 1.00 for Kanchanaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Port FC's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kanchanaburi have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kanchanaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Kanchanaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Port FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Port FC or Kanchanaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Kanchanaburi in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Port FC
0
Draws
0
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Kanchanaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Kanchanaburi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Kanchanaburi 1-4 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Kanchanaburi?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 67%, Kanchanaburi 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Port FC and 0% for Kanchanaburi.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kanchanaburi in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Kanchanaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Port FC's recent matches and 33% of Kanchanaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Kanchanaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Port FC's recent games and 0% of Kanchanaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Kanchanaburi tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kanchanaburi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 8-0 hammering of Kanchanaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Kanchanaburi 8-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.09 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.67 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 8-0 for 8 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 5.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.65 / defence 1.17, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 69% | Draw 22% | Kanchanaburi 9%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 33%, Kanchanaburi 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.17 PPG, Kanchanaburi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.