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Dominant Port FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chonburi FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Chonburi FC 3-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.65 xG and Chonburi FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chonburi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Chonburi FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 52% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 20%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 25%, Chonburi FC 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Port FC scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights