🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Port FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC and Chiangrai United finished level at 1-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.91 xG and Chiangrai United 0.75 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Port FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.31 / defence 0.68 against Chiangrai United attack 0.91 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 62% | Draw 26% | Chiangrai United 11%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 50%, Chiangrai United 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Port FC 1.62 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights