Port FC vs Buriram United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Port FC welcome Buriram United to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC at PAT Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Buriram United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.40 PPG (Port FC) versus 2.00 (Buriram United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Port FC, 4 for Buriram United and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Port FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 42% versus Buriram United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 48% | Buriram United 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.59 xG and Buriram United 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.151 / defence 0.893 | Buriram United attack 1.333 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Port FC games / 31 Buriram United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port FC 44% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 31%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 40% | Buriram United 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 44% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Port FC 1.59 / Buriram United 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.151 / def 0.893 | Buriram United attack 1.333 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Port FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Buriram United xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Port FC vs Buriram United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 April 2027 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Buriram United part of?
Port FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 44% chance of winning, Buriram United a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Port FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
Record (10 meetings): Port FC 4W | Draws 2 | Buriram United 4W.
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.15) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.90
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.30
Buriram United xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
6%
16.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Port FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Port FC and 1.30 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC's recent record stands at 19W 6D 6L from 31 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 23W 4D 4L across 31 games — 2.35 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 2.03 PPG, Buriram United on 2.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 11W 4D 0L from 15 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Buriram United's away record stands at 10W 2D 3L across 15 trips, a 2.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.55 scored and 1.03 conceded. Buriram United's attacking output running into Port FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 61%.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 19W 6D 6L in their last 31 games (2.03 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 23W 4D 4L in their last 31 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Buriram United away?
Port FC's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.47 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Port FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Buriram United in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
4
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Buriram United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port FC 3-1 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 40%, Buriram United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Port FC and 80% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Port FC's recent matches and 67% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Port FC's matches and 80% of Buriram United's.
Do Port FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.