Pattani vs Uthai Thani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Uthai Thani make the trip to Rainbow Stadium to face Pattani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pattani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: D W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.33 PPG for Pattani against 1.20 for Uthai Thani. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pattani lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Pattani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pattani — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pattani 33% and Uthai Thani 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pattani 67% | Uthai Thani 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.75 xG and Uthai Thani 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.611 / defence 1.226 | Uthai Thani attack 1.242 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.228. Pattani's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Uthai Thani have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 Pattani games / 33 Uthai Thani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pattani 14% | Draw 22% | Uthai Thani 64%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | Uthai Thani 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pattani 33% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 14% | Draw 22% | Uthai Thani 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 45% | xG Pattani 0.75 / Uthai Thani 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.611 / def 1.226 | Uthai Thani attack 1.242 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Uthai Thani xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Pattani vs Uthai Thani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Uthai Thani part of?
Pattani vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 14% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pattani and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Uthai Thani?
Record (1 meetings): Pattani 1W | Draws 0 | Uthai Thani 0W.
What form are Pattani and Uthai Thani in?
Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.61x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (1.24x) against Pattani's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
14%
6.96
22%
4.61
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.62
1.87
Uthai Thani xG
6.96
14%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
2%
45.11
30%
3.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Pattani and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Pattani and 1.87 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pattani come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattani are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 2.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Pattani or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Pattani
0
Draws
0
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Uthai Thani?
From 1 meetings on record, Pattani have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pattani and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Uthai Thani 1-2 Pattani.
Who has won more matches between Pattani and Uthai Thani?
Pattani have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Pattani, 100% for Uthai Thani — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pattani and 100% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pattani keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pattani have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Pattani's games and 100% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattani vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pattani's matches and 100% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Pattani and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.