Pattani vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pattani vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pattani host Port FC at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pattani — All Games: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: D W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Port FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Port FC's 2.30 PPG return is 0.97 points per game ahead of Pattani's 1.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Pattani in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Port FC in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pattani 33% and Port FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pattani 67% | Port FC 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.79 xG and Port FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.594 / defence 1.207 | Port FC attack 1.079 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.221. Pattani's attack strength of 0.594 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Pattani games / 33 Port FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pattani 19% | Draw 25% | Port FC 56%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pattani 33% | Port FC 80%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 19% | Draw 25% | Port FC 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Pattani 0.79 / Port FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.594 / def 1.207 | Port FC attack 1.079 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Port FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Port FC xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Port FC kick off?
Pattani vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Port FC part of?
Pattani vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 19% chance of winning, Port FC a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pattani and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Port FC in?
Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pattani's attack rating (0.59) and Port FC's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
19%
5.38
25%
3.99
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.38
1.59
Port FC xG
5.38
19%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
4%
26.34
26%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.7 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Pattani and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Pattani and 1.59 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Port FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pattani come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Pattani are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Port FC in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Port FC have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Pattani or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Port FC in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pattani at 33%, Port FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pattani and 100% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pattani keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pattani have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Pattani's games and 100% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattani vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pattani's matches and 100% of Port FC's.
Do Pattani and Port FC tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Port FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.