🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Pitchaya Stadium to take on Nong Bua Pitchaya. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025, 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record at Pitchaya Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sukhothai FC's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nong Bua Pitchaya at 0.80 PPG versus Sukhothai FC's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Sukhothai FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 2–5 with Sukhothai FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Sukhothai FC trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nong Bua Pitchaya 62% and Sukhothai FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 58% | Sukhothai FC 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.45 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.811 / defence 1.061 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.810 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.177. Data: 26 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 56 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 47% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Sukhothai FC 3.85. Nong Bua Pitchaya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Nong Bua Pitchaya 70% | Sukhothai FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights