🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.29 xG and Port FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against Port FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 34% | Draw 27% | Port FC 39%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 57%, Port FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Port FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights