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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.69 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.10, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 53% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 22%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 67%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.00 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights