Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-4 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United meet at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Buriram United (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Buriram United, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Buriram United winning.
It is worth noting that Buriram United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.36 xG and Buriram United 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Buriram United attack 1.171 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.977 / away 1.192. Data: 0 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 30 Buriram United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 32% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 42%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 32% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.36 / Buriram United 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Buriram United attack 1.171 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.977 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Buriram United xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 0 - 4 Buriram United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 32% chance of winning, Buriram United a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United?
Record (4 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 3W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.17x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
32%
3.14
26%
3.87
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.97
1.60
Buriram United xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
6%
15.65
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.60 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Pre-Season
Buriram United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Buriram United have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 7-0 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
5
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Buriram United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2025, when Buriram United 7-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Nong Bua Pitchaya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-4 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.36 xG and Buriram United 1.60 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Buriram United outscored their 1.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Buriram United attack 1.17 / defence 0.81, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 32% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 42%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.