🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Nong Bua Pitchaya and BG Pathum United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.41 xG and BG Pathum United 1.23 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against BG Pathum United attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 40% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 32%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 68%, BG Pathum United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights