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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Sukhothai FC finished level at 2-2 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.58 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.47 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.05, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 43% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 31%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54%, Sukhothai FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.23 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights