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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Nakhon Ratchasima FC edge out Rayong FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Rayong FC 2-1 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.11 xG and Rayong FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.74 / defence 0.94 against Rayong FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 36% | Draw 34% | Rayong FC 30%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49%, Rayong FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.86 PPG, Rayong FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights