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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Rayong FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Rayong FC finished level at 3-3 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.03 xG and Rayong FC 1.20 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rayong FC outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.49 against Rayong FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.33, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 55% | Draw 24% | Rayong FC 21%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56%, Rayong FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.33 PPG, Rayong FC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights