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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.93 xG and Ratchaburi 2.35 xG, a combined 4.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.53 against Ratchaburi attack 1.21 / defence 1.19, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% | Draw 20% | Ratchaburi 48%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60%, Ratchaburi 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.25 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights