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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Prachuap finished level at 1-1 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.51 xG and Prachuap 2.08 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.54 against Prachuap attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 22% | Prachuap 50%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 61%, Prachuap 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Prachuap's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights