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Port FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-2 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.16 xG and Port FC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Port FC outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.03 against Port FC attack 0.73 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% | Draw 34% | Port FC 26%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54%, Port FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Port FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights