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Dominant Nakhon Pathom run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Pathom beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.71 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.43 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Nakhon Pathom outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.33 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.95 / defence 1.17, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 43% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Pathom 31%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Nakhon Pathom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 47%, Nakhon Pathom 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Pathom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights