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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Muangthong United finished level at 1-1 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.30 xG and Muangthong United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.03 against Muangthong United attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 38% | Draw 32% | Muangthong United 30%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54%, Muangthong United 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Muangthong United's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.09 PPG, Muangthong United 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights