🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Lamphun Warrior defy the odds to beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.52 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 23%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Lamphun Warrior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%, Lamphun Warrior 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.89 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights