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Nakhon Ratchasima FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khon Kaen United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Khon Kaen United 3-1 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.05 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.30 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.48 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.72 / defence 1.33, drawn from 24/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% | Draw 22% | Khon Kaen United 24%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 58%, Khon Kaen United 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Khon Kaen United's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights