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Dominant Chiangrai United run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-4 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.11 xG and Chiangrai United 1.35 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.47 against Chiangrai United attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 55% | Draw 21% | Chiangrai United 24%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Chiangrai United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 62%, Chiangrai United 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.19 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights