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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ayutthaya FC edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ayutthaya FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.08 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 26% | Draw 34% | Ayutthaya FC 40%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 36%, Ayutthaya FC 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.64 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights