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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Nakhon Pathom defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Pathom beat Uthai Thani 1-0 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.35 xG and Uthai Thani 1.73 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.78 / defence 1.45 against Uthai Thani attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 30% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 46%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Nakhon Pathom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 63%, Uthai Thani 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.94 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Pathom win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights