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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rayong FC edge out Nakhon Pathom 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC beat Nakhon Pathom 1-2 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.53 xG and Rayong FC 1.54 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.81 / defence 1.45 against Rayong FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 37% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 38%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 67%, Rayong FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.78 PPG, Rayong FC 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayong FC win broke the near-deadlock. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights