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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Nakhon Pathom and Nong Bua Pitchaya drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.80 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.36 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.76 / defence 1.25 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.93 / defence 1.44, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 47% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 28%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 75%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (16 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (16 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.75 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights