Nakhon Pathom 1-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 53%, yet in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium to take on Nakhon Pathom in Thai League 1 (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nakhon Pathom stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Nakhon Pathom's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 1 games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have recorded 1W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nakhon Ratchasima FC are 2.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's (from Nakhon Pathom's last 10 home games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 1 games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.78 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.909 / defence 1.067 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.236. Data: built from Nakhon Pathom's last 31 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 53% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 1.90 | Draw 4.28 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.18. Nakhon Pathom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nakhon Pathom's last 10 home games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 1 games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Nakhon Pathom 31 games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 2 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 53% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.78 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.909 / def 1.067 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC FAQs
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 2) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 53% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nakhon Pathom's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nakhon Pathom's last 31 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.28
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.90
1.12
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
4%
24.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.12 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nakhon Pathom come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Pathom on 3.00 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Nakhon Pathom's scoring rate against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100%.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
Nakhon Pathom (Home) vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Form FAQs
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2024. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 11 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nakhon Pathom
0
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 January 2025: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 Nakhon Pathom.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Nakhon Pathom's recent matches and 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Nakhon Pathom 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Nakhon Pathom 1-2 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.78 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 53% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 24%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Ratchasima FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 100%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 3.00 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.