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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Muangthong United cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Nakhon Pathom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Muangthong United beat Nakhon Pathom 2-4 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.42 xG and Muangthong United 1.56 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Muangthong United outscored their 1.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.77 / defence 1.30 against Muangthong United attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 34% | Draw 25% | Muangthong United 40%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 61%, Muangthong United 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Muangthong United's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights