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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Nakhon Pathom edge out Khon Kaen United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Pathom beat Khon Kaen United 2-1 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.78 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.72 / defence 1.24 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.76 / defence 1.43, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 51% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 24%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 64%, Khon Kaen United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Khon Kaen United's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.94 PPG, Khon Kaen United 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Pathom win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights